Carbon markets are often talked about as if everyone already understands them.
Most people don’t. And that’s fine.
A quick bit of context: a carbon market is simply a way of putting a price on carbon emissions, so reducing them becomes a financial decision as well as a moral one. Some are mandated by governments, others are voluntary — all are trying, in different ways, to change behaviour at scale.
Of course, cynics will say carbon markets encourage greenwashing. Historically, they haven’t always been wrong. Loose rules, poor verification and cheap offsets have allowed some organisations to buy reassurance rather than make change. That scepticism still hangs over the whole space.
This is where this excellent piece by Yingyan Lu is particularly helpful. It doesn’t ignore that history. Instead, it explains why the direction of travel matters.
The argument is straightforward.
Carbon markets are slowly moving from ambition to accountability. Governments are tightening the rules. Companies are being asked to evidence their claims. Carbon is starting to show up in real commercial decisions, not just sustainability language.
Voluntary markets are part of that shift. Low-quality, easy answers are being challenged, while credibility, trust and integrity are becoming harder to avoid. In that sense, carbon markets don’t eliminate the risk of greenwashing — but they do start to reduce the space for it.
Technology plays a supporting role rather than stealing the spotlight. Measurement improves. Verification gets tougher. The system becomes harder to game. Not glamorous, but necessary.
What stands out most is the tone. This isn’t a victory lap or a manifesto. It’s a thoughtful look at a system that’s still imperfect, but evolving in a direction that might actually hold.
For anyone trying to understand whether carbon markets can move beyond theory and into something more meaningful, this is a clear and grounded read.
Read the full article here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/carbon-markets-2026-policy-innovation-ai-redefine-game-lu--g2y6e?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios&utm_campaign=share_via
At The Third Half, curiosity beats certainty — and pieces like this help move the conversation forward.
Despite what the broader geopolitical context likes to say (and the shock into the system coming across from the Atlantic) my careful anticipation is that carbon markets are here to stay, since more industries - like aviation - and more countries - like in SE Asia, Middle East - are expanding their markets, both compliance and voluntary. A great food for thought!